Where Will We Be After the Oil is Gone?

I just read an interesting story in the Guardian about the politically and scientifically difficult job of estimating world petrolium reserves. Companies and governments aren't always completely honest about their findings, but experts predict that worldwide peak oil production--the point at which half of all known oil has been extracted--will happen some time between now and the 2020. After that, we can expect the supply to start dropping 2-3% per year.

What makes all of this even more scary is that both China and India are on a path of becoming energy hogs like the U.S. The article explains:

According to the IEA, demand rose faster in 2004 than in any year since 1976. China's oil consumption, which accounted for a third of extra global demand last year, grew 17% and is expected to double over 15 years to more than 10m barrels a day - half the US's present demand. India's consumption is expected to rise by nearly 30% in the next five years. If world demand continues to grow at 2% a year, then almost 160m barrels a day will need to be extracted in 2035, twice as much as today.

That, say most geologists is almost inconceivable. According to industry consultants IHS Energy, 90% of all known reserves are now in production, suggesting that few major discoveries remain to be made.

Of course, there are people calling chicken little on all of this, too. New fields are still being discovered off the coast of Mexico and in Africa and elsewhere. There's also tar sands and shale and heavy oil belts, but those take more energy to extract and/or refine.

The whole world is in denial about our energy future. With consumption growing and supply shrinking at the same time, we won't have much time to adapt before a crisis sets in. Energy is a cost that is factored into the price of everything--from the subway sandwich to the lathe to the paper clip.

The article quotes an unnamed U.S. petroleum analyst summing up the problem by saying, "Kiss your lifestyle goodbye."